PROBABILITY
GARY C. MOORE
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Probability - Another way to put it
is -- a high degree of probability, no, let
us say the very highest possible degree of
probability is still just probability. |
There is an infinite difference between "there
is usually" and "it is certain."
Now, the power of "custom" that
resides in "usually" is fully acknowledged
in Hume and is said to be an, in a -- I think
-- proper sense of the term -- Absolute necessity
in the practical machinations of the everyday
in our minds. For one important point, the
destruction of "certain" truth,
as opposed to mere "belief" solidly
supported by "custom" and experience,
destroys the imposition of any way of behaviour
upon other people when their behaviour does
not cause physical harm of any sort to others.
"One can be all that one can be"
as long as it does not physically interfere
with others no matter how distasteful that
'being' is. Of course there will be many
border line cases like spam of phone-call
advertisements that amount to harassment,
but there one gets into pragmatic cause-and-effect
behaviour and also understanding one's own
responses to such situations. How one responds
may have worse consequences than doing nothing
at all. But this is a situation of "maybe."
That something, anything at all, WILL inevitably
happen is dependent upon something that does
not exist and is a pure figment of our imagination
-- the future. That the "future"
is important to us as conscious, thinking
being may even be stated as an axiom and
Absolute. That any relation to the future
has "certain truth" value, however,
is meaningless.
Let us consider the project of Bertrand Russell
to get rid of the "is" word. Hume
repeatedly says adding "existence"
to the "impression" of a present-at-hand
object adds absolutely nothing more to it.
It is either a fact or it is not a fact.
That is all that matters. But "usually"
needs an "is," a substratum of
"being" independent of facts that
simply 'reside' in themselves and 'say' absolutely
nothing, nothing whatsoever, about the past,
about the present, or about the future. Those
are conditions of "existence" one
is trying to add to the object. One might
express it this way -- simply an experiment
on my part -- the only proper expression
of certain truth other than tautological
is wordless awareness. When one adds words
to the situation, one not only adds mere
probable speculation, regardless of how much
it is probable, and one also adds the necessity
of using the "is" word, which Russell
so wanted to get away from, because temporality
can ONLY exist in words, not in totally boring,
bare-assed awareness. We use words, then,
because we would be literally bored to death
just staring at objects. If we bring temporal
tenses into our language, and how can you
avoid it without speaking practical nonsence,
you bring in "is," the brother
of "was" and "will be."
All that is "certainly" true, though,
is only the pure tenseless present, and that
no one can sanely deal with for long. One
has to have "was" and "will
be" or go mad.
That may possibly be a key to the problem
of reflexivity. The statement "I know
that I know" is the basis for a great
deal of action and judgment of that action,
i. e., "The bastard knew what he was
doing!" Some . . . people . . . claim
it as the primary distinction between animals
and human beings. I think Hume would ask,
How do 'They' know this? But my point is,
"I know that I know," though it
borders on experiential nonsense and smells
of tautology, makes a great deal of practical
sense and is certainly the operational fundament
of morality, custom, and law. However, "I
know that I know that I know that I know
that I know . . . " etc., strikes everyone
as mere verbal nonsense. However, again,
it is a logical consequence of the all-important
"I know that I know." There is
no way around it. The only way to judge is
merely pragmatic, not strict logic. So is
the whole thing nonsense right from the beginning
and we totally delude ourselves. I think
we need to seriously consider that possibility
in a Humean light. Hume would say that the
only STRONG determining force here is "vigour
and vivacity" and he is, as usual, perfectly
right. It is purely an emotional determination,
at least right off hand. On the other hand,
knowing one has the ability always at-hand
to say "I know that I know that I know
that I know that I know . . . ' ad infinitum
is very reassuring of the enduring sense
of one's personal identity, one's 'existence,'
through wordy time. Is "the enduring
sense of one's personal identity" in
any possible way, other than desire and avoidance
of insecurity, justified though? Common sense
tells us we change every second, and it says
we change fundamentally in each day several
times. Insecurity and fright tells us we
are always the same person. The law holds
us to account that we are always the same
person from day to day. Is this justified,
justified IN FACT at all? But can you see
how the word "being" subtly re-insinuates
itself constantly back into one's thinking
even when is trying very hard to get rid
of it? One can can it by a different name,
"inevitability" and "necessary"
are two possible examples, but the functionality
remains the same however distasteful.
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